PAC-10 Power Rankings: Week Five

Most seasons if you lose a close game, you’re going to drop a spot or two in the conference power rankings. Most seasons if you get blown out on the road you’re going to drop in the power rankings as well. But this isn’t most seasons.

The PAC-10 is down a significant amount, there’s no question about it. It is down so much that losing on your home court to a team that finished ninth in the Big-12 actually solidifies a higher spot in the power rankings.  It’s still early, but things are certainly starting to take form in the conference.

PAC-10 Power Rankings: Week Four

Last week I gave UCLA the benefit of the doubt in keeping them in the top half of the conference, but it appears as though I shouldn’t have. The Bruins are in bad shape with or without Dragovic and have taken the biggest hit in these rankings of the year dropping four spots this week.

The thing about all of this though, is you can pretty much throw all of it out the window once conference play starts. But we’ll go along pretending I have a clue as to what’s going on.

Stanford: Better than UCLA – so far

Final	1	2	OT	T
Stanford (3-3)	38	25	2	65
Kentucky #5 (6-0) «	32	31	10	73

Is it possible that at 3-3, Stanford has looked more impressive than Oregon, ASU, and UCLA, and possibly even Cal? It is certain they have been more impressive than USC and Oregon State, but forcing a heavily heralded Kentucky team into an overtime game is impressive.

PAC-10 Power Rankings: Week 3

It has certainly been a bizzare week of PAC-10 basketball. With so many teams struggling out of the gate it not only looks like the PAC-10 is down, but it is way down. But as I said earlier, withhold your judgement. Afterall, do you really trust records that put Arizona State (4-0) as the top team in the conference?

That is the very reason I do the Power Rankings, because the quality of a team isn’t just in wins and losses…

Quick Weekend (2) Preview

There have been some surprises the first week, but for the most part the games have gone as expected. This weekend isn’t going to be a highlight weekend for the PAC-10, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to keep track of.

Don’t want to be a whipping boy

First off, let me just say that I wouldn’t want to be Cal State-Bakersfield tonight when they face of against UCLA. After coming off an embarrassing season-opening loss, the Bruins will look to make a statement. What better way than against an Independent school that just can’t muster the talent to keep up with the Bruins. Should they perform a miracle and manage to literally steal one, the Bruins will be in for a LONG season. But don’t bet on it.

PAC-10 Power Rankings: Week 2

**This week’s Power Rankings are only for the games THROUGH Sunday, November 15.**

It is still really early in the season, but there are a few things of note already, but really not much change in the power rankings this week. Just two major ones moves.

Better than believed, despite loss

San Diego 77, Stanford 64

Final	1	2	T
Stanford (0-1)	32	32	64
San Diego (1-0) «	35	42	77

Okay, so I called that Stanford would lose to the San Diego Toreros, but I was pleasantly surprised. The Toreros, who are likely a bubble team, battled with the Cardinal for most of the first half before putting the game away holding the Cardinal to just two field goals in the final seven minutes.

I honestly thought that the score on this game would more reflect the Oregon State score (20+) instead of just 77-64. Props to the Cardinal for showing a little spine, but it won’t amount to much down the road.

Opening Weekend Preview

As more writers join in, hopefully there will be team-by-team previews for either each week or game. But for now, here’s just a quick peek at the games this weekend.

At this point in the year, it is very rare to see a tough match-up for any school. After all, nobody wants to open their season with a loss, receive the proverbial “trial by fire,” or go against another top-tier program without some real game time under their belts.

That trend has not changed this year as the toughest game could be when Stanford travels to San Diego – and unfortunately that isn’t because San Diego is that good.

For some schools this may be the last chance you get at seeing the twelfth man on the roster. For others it will be nice to get a glimpse at the roster from top-to-bottom. Whatever the case may be, it is still interesting even if not suspenseful. Here’s a quick look at this week’s games.

PAC-10 Power Rankings: Week 1

1. Washington Huskies – Reigning conference champs have lost a little, but have added a great recruiting class. They deserve this spot until Cal or someone else can wrestle it away from them.
2. Cal Golden Bears – After returning almost their entire roster Cal looks primed for a charge to the top of the conference. They’ll need more production from their bench if they hope to stave off another late-season melt down.
3. UCLA Bruins– Not many teams are capable of remaining in the top three in their conference after losing so many key players, but UCLA was deep a year ago and added a Top 10 recruiting class to the mix. It’ll be bumpy early, but they’ll earn their stripes.
4. Oregon State Beavers – The Beavers only lost one key player and added a Top 25 recruiting class. Combining Craig Robinsons coaching prowess and the talented players, the Beavers will turn some heads this year.
5. Oregon Ducks – Don’t buy into the Ducks being a basement team for two years in a row with the amount of talent they have. Dunigan will have matured, and the Ducks should rebound from a dismal season.
6. Arizona Wildcats – The ‘Cats won’t likely finish here, but until their freshman and role players step up, they haven’t earned a better slot after losing Budinger and Hill in the off-season. Their Top-15 recruiting class and new coach Sean Miller will provide a huge boost. Look for the ‘Cats to make significant strides throughout the year.
7. Arizona State Sun Devils – After the departure of Tarden and Pendergraph, the Sun Devils will return to their painful slow-down brand of ball circa 2007. With Glasser still at the helm, the Sun Devils will prove to be a steady, methodical team that can hang around. The lack of a go-to guy leaves the Sun Devils losing a lot of tough games.
8. Washington State Cougars – Ken Bone will bring in a more up-tempo brand of basketball to Pullman, which can be a good thing. The only problem is that the Cougars lack the horses to make that cart run consistently. The Cougars have talent and will pull out a couple of surprising wins, but don’t look for it consistently.
9. USC Trojans – After a scandall-ridden off-season, the Trojans lost 4 of 5 starters, their entire recruiting class, and turned to a Kevin O’Neill to replace their defensive guru. That’s going to be too much for the Trojans who field a team that won’t fit the style O’Neill likes to run.
10. Stanford Cardinal – Johnny Dawkins could prove to be a solid coach if he can ever get a solid 7 or 8 man rotation. In order to do that he has to bring in a quality recruiting class – something he’ll get an opportunity for next year with even more departures on the horizon. It’s going to be a long year, but at least there’s next year.

PAC-10 Preview

PAC-10 Basketball Outlook: 2009-2010

Despite the prognostications that the PAc-10 would have down years the past two season, six teams have earned NCAA Tournament bids each season, and have combined for three Sweet-16 finishes and one Final Four appearance.

But thanks to a mass exodus of talent (27 NBA draftees in three seasons), the four season streak of 60% of the conference in the NCAA tournament is in jeopardy, and it appears that the pundits prognostications will prove that the third time truly is a charm.

The biggest reason why the PAC-10 could suffer a down year isbecause of their youth and lack of qaulity veteran players. The PAC-10 lost ten players to the NBA draft in 2009, seven of which were first-round picks. If that’s not bad enough, only two All-PAC -10 players (Patrick Christopher and Jerome Randle) return for a 2010 encore. Don’t take a down year for the PAC-10 to mean they won’t be competitive, however – afterall, this isn’t a “down year” in C-USA.

With a large influx of young talent, including four Top-25 recruiting classes (UCLA, Arizona, Washington, and Oregon State) according to both Rivals.com and Scout.com, the PAC-10 as a whole is staving off the rebuilding process.

In the conference, only three teams can be considered to be on the rise though, while four teams have taken a steps back, with the remaining three managing to stay stagnant.

If the player changes aren’t enough to cause some concern for a lull in the overall performance of the conference, the coaching changes should. The conference continues to get its coaching make-over with three new coaches taking the sidelines this year, bringing the total to half the league in the past two seasons.

With all the changes occuring during the off-season, the conference will likely get off to a bumpy start, and fans everywhere will have to withhold judgement until the end of he season when the obstacles of coaching changes, and inexperience will have all been overcome.

The biggest key to be aware of in the conference is what team can get solid frontcourt play. If any team gets surprising dominance in their frontcourt, they could have a fast-track to the top of the conference since there is but a select few quality true big men in the PAC-10.

Coaching Changes

Arizona – It was an unfortunate end to a well respected and endeared coach, but it had to happen sometime. Arizona improves their situation as they were finally able to go away from the interim coaches and bring in Sean Miller. They dodged more than one bullet in the process though.

Washington State – The final day for Bennett in Pullman was rumored to have been on the horizon for over a year before he finally departed. His presence will be sorely missed by the Cougars, who managed to hire a solid replacement in Ken Bone. Unfortunately, the transitio nwill take a few years before the Cougars could become truly competitive again.

USC – The biggest losers in all of the off-season changes weren’t spared changes at coach either. Scandal, or rumor of one at the very least ran off Tim Floyd. To replace him they brought in the ever-wandering Kevin O’Neill who has limited success anywhere he goes.

Pre-Season Predictions

Standings

Team (Projected conference record) – compared to 08-09

1. CAL (16-2) – Stagnant
2. Washington (14-4) – Stagnant
3. UCLA (12-6) – On the decline
4. Arizona (11-7) – On the rise
5. Oregon (10-8) – On the rise
6. Oregon State (9-9) – On the rise
7. Arizona State (6-12) – On the decline
8. Washington State (5-13) – On the decline
9. USC (4-14) – On the decline
10. Stanford (2-16) – Stagnant

Player of the Year: Jerome Randle

Freshman of the Year: Abdul Gaddy

First-Team All-PAC-10                  All-Freshman Team

PG-Patrick Christopher  (CAL)         PG-Abdul Gaddy
SG-Jerome Randle  (CAL)                   SG-Trent Lockett
SF-Quincy Pondexter (UW)               SF-Tyler Honeycutt (UCLA)
PF-Joevan Catron (OU)                       PF-Reeves Nelson (UCLA)
C-Michael Dunigan (OU)                      C-Kyryl Natyazhko (UofA

Team by Team

Arizona Wildcats

Projected Finish: Home 6-3, Away 5-4, NCAA Tournament

The Big Question: Can the ‘Cats overcome the adjustment to their third coach in as many seasons, and in the process get impact play from former role palyers and incoming freshman to make it to their 26th consecutive NCAA Tournament?

Key Departures: Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, Zane Johnson
Key Additions: Kyryl Natyazhko, Solomon Hill, Lamont “MoMo” Jones

The priority for the Wildcats this year isn’t the NCAA Tournament – at least that’s what Coach Miller will say. I know it sounds wierd, but he’s actually right. The Wildcats will look bumpy in the early goings as they turn to Jamelle Horne, Kyle Fogg, and a strong recruiting class to fill more than the void left by the departures of Hill and Budinger.

With a new coach in Miller and  versatile backcourt, the ‘Cats have th epieces in order to make ap ush for their 26th straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Of course, that depends on if Nic Wise decides to trust his teammates and showcase his decision making abilities instead of trying to get deep in the paint where he becomes turnover happy.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Projected Finish: Home 4-5, Away 2-7, None

The Big Question: Can the Sun Devils compensate for the loss of Harden and Pendergraph with a turn-around performance by Eric Boateng and a Freshman of the Year type performance from Trent Lockett?

Key Departures: James Harden, Jeff Pendergraph
Key Arrivals: Trent Lockett, Victor Rudd

This is going to be a grueling year for the Sun Devils who look to Rihards Kuksiks and Derek Glasser to be their “to-go'” guys. They still have talent and will be a steady-handed team with Glasser at the helm. But with the combination of athletics and talent failing to combine in one player, the Sun Devils will be looking to rebuild.

Sendek is a solid coach who will instill a game plan that pulls the advantage towards his players, so the Sun Devils will be in a lot of games even if they can’t close them out.

California Golden Bears

Projected Finish: Home 7-1, Away 7-1, NCAA Tournament

The Big Question: With no major changes to their lineup, can the Golden Bears rely on their experience and depth to avoid a late-season collapse circa ’08-’09, propelling them to the top of the conference in Mike Montgomerey’s second season in Berkeley?

Key Departures: None
Key Arrivals: None

When Patrick Christopher opted to stay in school, keeping the best 3-point shooting backcourt intact, the Golden Bears became an almost instant lock for one of the top two spots in the conference.

With more experience, look for guards D.J. Seeley and others to make greater impact as CAl avoids a late-season meltdown and cruisies their way through the conference and into the NCAA Tournament.

Oregon Ducks

Projected Finish Home 6-3, Away 4-5, NIT

The Big Question: Can Kent capitalize on the young talent in Eugene and restoring the Ducks to contention and save his job with one of the greatest single-season turnarounds?

Key Departures: Franz Dorsainvill
Key Additions: Jamil Wilson, E.J. Singler

Last year was an aberratio nfor a team with as much talent as the Ducks had on their roster – at least Ernie Kent hopes so. With players like Michael Dunigan, Joevan Catron, and Tejuan Porter the Ducks have too much talent to suffer like they did last year.

The main argument for another down-year is that losing, just like winning, becomes a habit. Lazy and carless play riddled the Ducks a season ago, but with Mike Dunlap courtside, the Ducks should be more disciplined – especially on the defensive end.

Oregon State Beavers

Projected Finish: Home 4-5, Away 5-4, NIT

The Big Question: After making significant strides last year, can the Beavers continue to surprise this season by jumping into the top five of the conference with addition of a Top-25 recruiting class?

Key Departures: Rickey Claitt
Key Arrivals: Roberto Nelson, Jared Cunning Ham

With how OSU has turned around in just one season under Craig Robinson, it is no wonder there is a strong recruiting pull in Corvallis now – being the POTUS’ brother-in-law aside.

After returning the majority of his roster from a season ago, and adding a Top-15 recruiting class, Robinson will look to push the tempo a little more tihs season as the Beavers are becoming continually more versatile under his watch.

Stanford Cardinal

Projected Finish Home 2-7, Away 0-9, None

The Big Question: Can the cardinal take a step in the right direction despite losing three of their five starters and a key bench player, or will they continue to suffer heavily for another year?

Key Departures: Kenny Brown, Anthony Goods, Lawrence Hill, Mitch Johnson
Key Additions: Gabriel Harris, Andrew Zimmerman

If the below-average season for the Cardinal wasn’t bad enough last season, things are going to ge a whole lot worse as the Caridnal lost a majority of their starting lineup from a year ago and turn to a Santa Clara cast-off and role players to fill that gaping hole.

Barring the surprise development of a below-average role player to elite status, the Cardinal rely entirely on Landy Fields. Despite the conference being weaker than it has bene in recent memory, Fields isn’t capable of carrying the Cardinal past most of the teams in the conference.

UCLA Bruins

Projected Finish: Home 6-3, Away 6-3

The Big Question: Can the freshman and role players from the past two years turn the Bruins into a serious conteder again this year, or will they be like seven of the other teams looking for table scraps after Cal and UW have cleared through?

Key Departures: Alfred Aboya, Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Jrue Holiday, James Diefenbach
Key Arrivals: Tyler Honeycutt, Brendan Lane, Mike Moser, Nelson Reeves, Anthony Stover

The Bruins lost too much to the draft and graduation this past off-season not to suffer a set back. Originally I didn’t expect the setback to be too severe, considering that players like Malcolm Lee and Michael Roll were capable of starting on most teams a year ago. Combine that with a Top-25 recruiting class and it appears the Bruins should be right back near the top again.

But the more I think about it, the less certain I am. Especially with the loss of 47.3 ppg, and 15.7 rpg.  That’s 62% of their scoring power, and 43% of their rebounding. In addition, the Bruins are now deprived of their veteren point guard and center and a constant playe-maker in Jrue Holiday. That’s just too much to compensate for in just one season.

In the end, the Bruins are still one of the top five teams in the conference, but rather than fighting to be one or two, they’ll be fighting to be anywhere from third to sixth.

USC Trojans

Projected Finish: Home 4-5, Away 0-9, None

The Big Question: It’s not really if, but how far will the Trojans fall without a premier freshman on the wing and no threat to speak of inside the paint.

Key Departures: Tim Floyd, DeMar DeRozan, Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett, Terence Green, Marcus Johnson, Keith Wilkinson, Their entire 2009 recruiting class
Key Arrivals: Kevin O’Neill – wow, that’s sad when he isn’t just a key arrival, but the only key arrival.

Gone are four of five starters, Time Floyd, ever-changing defenses and just about everything else that made the Trojans a force to be reckoned with last season. With O’Neill at the helm, the Trojans will be strictly a man-to-man defensive team that struggles with the few remnants left in the cupobard after a fall out of one of the worst scandals in recent recruiting.

they still have some talent left that is capable of an upset win or two, but don’t expect anything to come on the road as the Trojans don’t have the talent or power to outcoach or outplay anybody away from the Galen Center.

The Trojans mirror the Cardinal with one primary go-to guy in Dwight Lewis. But it’s going to be abumpy road for the Trojans this season, especially with NCAA sanctions looming in the near future.

Washington Huskies

Projected Finish: Home 7-2, Away 7-2, NCAA Tournament

The Big Question: Can the Huskies get enough production out of their frontcourt to overcome the Golden bears for a top spot in the conference or will the loss of Brockman be too much?

Key Departures: Jon Brockman, Justin Dentmon, Artem Wallace
Key Additions: Abdul Gaddy, Charles Garcia, Clarence Trent, C.J. Wilcox

Abdul Gaddy was a heck of a pick up for Lorezno Romar who will have one of the best backcourts in the conference, if not the nation. The problem the Huskies face is their lack of aproven post player following the departure of Jon Brockman. Matthew Bryan-Amaning is solid, but has not bee relied upon heavily thus far. Bryan-Amaning has been solid in the role he has filled, and should be a confident pick for break-out player of the year with a more prominant role, but there will still be some drop-off.

The Huskies will be good and are the second-most picked team to win the conference. But the decline in the post presence, and less experience will leave them getting passed up by the Golden Bears for top honors.

Washington State Cougars

Projected Finish: Home 2-7, Away 3-6

The Big Question: Can Ken Bone capitalize on players like Klay Thompson to make this team a viable running team and prevent the Cougars from falling into the 8-10 spots in the conference?

Key Departures: Tony Bennet, Aron Baynes, Caleb Forrest, Daven Harmeling, Taylor Rochestie
Key Arrivals: Xavier Thames, Anthony Brown, Reggie Moore

Klay Thompson will fit nicely into the up-tempo pace that former Portland State coach Ken Bone will bring to Pullman, WA. Unfortunately, the Cougars have lost three signicant contributors from their team last year. While they did bring in a few nice recruits, they aren’t the caliber of players that have thee capability to compensate for the loss of players like Taylor Rochestie.

The loss of Bennett is huge, but the Cougars will rebound under Bone. It will be interesting to see how the old-style PAC-10 run-n-gun will play out with a majority of the teams switching to a defense-minded attack with emphasis on quality small forwards.